Strange Times

On planet Earth, one species has reigned supreme, its position as the ultimate apex predator unchallenged.

Us.

No life-form in the history of life has managed to ditch the shackles of its gravitational prison and gone to space, but we have. No organism can split the atom, but we can.

Yet now there is a life-form, barely even considered alive, which handicaps the very ability that made us so successful in the first place…

…our ability to cooperate and form a collective that is greater than the sum of its parts.

We live in strange times.

And as we enter our fourth week of working-from-home I slowly adjust to this strange situation. What used to be surreal is now turning into the new normal. New habits are starting to form, new patterns of behaviour.

How quickly everything went. From a small announcement that we should please not shake hands anymore to the prime minister himself giving a televised speech for the first time in almost half a century… to gatherings of more than two people outlawed.

These are strange times.

It makes me think of work, and life. As a modeller of risk, I spend my entire work-life on quantifying risk to protect the bank, but when a situation emerges that has the ability to shake the bank to its very foundation: we are powerless. Powerless, despite our advanced statistical methods and programming prowess. The true risk, we cannot model. The true risk, we cannot manage.

It should remind us that what is most impactful is inherently unpredictable. They are so rare that history cannot be our teacher. We simulate possible scenarios and prepare but this… no one could have foreseen. And if the unpredictable rare event has such an outsized impact, we have to wonder and reflect how much we can really do.

This is a stark reminder that we should not pretend we can predict the future. Because if we pretend otherwise we become overconfident, and only then can we be blindsided. Perhaps we should focus not on trying to predict the future but on being prepared when fate strikes.

And in these times when we are farther from everyone than ever, it is of the utmost important that we remain strong and support each other. Because the need has never been greater than it is today. Only by sticking together do we get through this. The lone wolf dies, but the pack survives.

And although this situation is destroying everyone’s plans, perhaps we can benefit from it. Given that this is the status quo, the only sensible strategy is to make the most out of it. Perhaps you discover a passion for running now that the gym is closed. Perhaps you discover a passion for cooking now that all restaurants are closed. In times like these, it shows us how adaptable we are, and that we have the ability to make the best of any situation, no matter the circumstances.

The situation may seem bleak now, but we must remain strong while our scientists find a cure. Because never forget there is a light at the end of the tunnel…

…and that ultimately, human ingenuity will triumph.